AFL Round 9 Tips & Preview - Best bets for the Round 9 of the AFL home and away season

By Adam Cusworth

05 May 2025

Adam Cusworth 05 May 2025

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Collingwood expected to outplay Fremantle with strong defense.
St Kilda tipped to continue winning streak against Carlton.
Hawthorn vs. Melbourne: Hawks favored due to strong form.

MELBOURNE, AUSTRALIA - AUGUST 25: Blake Acres of the Blues kicks the ball during the round 24 AFL match between Carlton Blues and St Kilda Saints at Marvel Stadium, on August 25, 2024, in Melbourne, Australia. (Photo by Darrian Traynor/Getty Images)

Round 9 of the 2025 AFL season takes place from May 8. Adam Cusworth provides his best bets for the nine games taking place.

Fremantle v Collingwood, Optus Stadium (8.10pm)
St Kilda v Carlton, MCG (7.40pm)
Melbourne v Hawthorn, MCG (1.20pm)
Essendon v Sydney Swans, Marvel Stadium (4.15pm)
Gold Coast Suns v Western Bulldogs, TIO Darwin (7.35pm)
Port Adelaide v Adelaide Crows, Adelaide Oval (8.10pm)
Richmond v West Coast Eagles, MCG (1.10pm)
Geelong Cats v GWS Giants, GMHBA Stadium (3.20pm)
North Melbourne v Brisbane Lions, Ninja Stadium (4.40pm)

Thursday May 8

Fremantle v Collingwood, Optus Stadium (8.10pm)

Fremantle hosts Collingwood at Optus Stadium on Thursday night in a crucial Round 9 clash, with the Magpies looking to rebound from a heartbreaking loss to Geelong, while the Dockers aim to recover from a 61-point hammering by St Kilda. Collingwood, sitting second on the ladder at 6-2, has won three of its past four against Fremantle and boasts the league’s best defence, conceding just 69 points per game. In contrast, Fremantle has struggled for consistency, ranks near the bottom in key stats like clearances and points scored, and will be without key midfielder Hayden Young. While the Dockers are stronger at home, the Magpies’ form, pressure, and scoring depth—led by Elliott and Mihocek—make them firm favourites to cover the line and control the contest. Tip: Collingwood to cover the line.

Friday May 9

St Kilda v Carlton, MCG (7.40pm)

St Kilda and Carlton face off under Friday night lights at the MCG in a crucial Round 9 clash, with both teams looking to build consistency after up-and-down starts to 2025. The Saints come in with momentum after a dominant 61-point win over Fremantle, while the Blues are reeling from a 60-point loss to Adelaide. Sitting 10th and 13th respectively, St Kilda holds the recent advantage in this matchup, winning three of the last four encounters. With Jack Macrae, Nasiah Wanganeen-Milera, and Mitch Owens in strong form, and Carlton struggling to beat sides outside the bottom tier, the Saints appear well-placed to continue their rise—especially if they can match Carlton’s usually strong inside 50 and clearance game. Tip: St Kilda are the value in this match, take them in the head to head betting.

Saturday May 10

Melbourne v Hawthorn, MCG (1.20pm)

Hawthorn will look to continue their strong 2025 form when they face Melbourne at the MCG on Saturday in Round 9, despite not having beaten the Demons since 2018. The Hawks, sitting at 6-2, feature a top-four-ranked defence and attack, while the Demons have clawed back to 3-5 after a poor start. Melbourne have struggled to score, ranking 16th in points for, and face a Hawthorn side full of confidence, led by Jack Gunston (20 goals) and Jai Newcombe. With Christian Petracca a key for Melbourne and questions over Clayton Oliver’s availability, the Hawks’ depth and balance across the ground may give them the edge in this clash. Tip: Hawthorn to cover the line

Essendon v Sydney Swans, Marvel Stadium (4.15pm)

Essendon and Sydney face off in a pivotal Round 9 clash at Marvel Stadium, with both sides battling mounting injury lists and inconsistent form. The Bombers (4-4) have edged out narrow wins in two of their past three but continue to struggle turning high disposal numbers into scores, while the Swans (3-5) snapped a three-game skid with a gritty win over GWS. Sydney holds a dominant recent record over Essendon, winning six of the past seven matchups, and thrives at Marvel Stadium with seven wins from their last eight there. Isaac Heeney looms large again, with eight goals in his past four against the Bombers, and Chad Warner adds midfield spark. With more experience and a stronger record at the venue, the Swans look well-placed to take the points. Tip: Sydney at the head to head.

Gold Coast Suns v Western Bulldogs, TIO Darwin (7.35pm)

The Gold Coast Suns host the Western Bulldogs in a tantalising AFL Round 9 clash at TIO Stadium in Darwin on Saturday night. The Suns are looking to rebound after a wet-weather loss to Brisbane, though they’ve been formidable in the Top End, winning their last six games in Darwin by an average of 49 points. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs come into this one red-hot, having smashed Port Adelaide by 91 points with dominant midfield and clearance work. Both teams boast top-tier midfielders, with Gold Coast’s Touk Miller and Noah Anderson going head-to-head against the likes of Marcus Bontempelli and Tom Liberatore. Expect a tight contest, with the Suns’ Darwin dominance clashing with the Bulldogs’ recent form surge. Tip: Gold Coast in a close one.

Port Adelaide v Adelaide Crows, Adelaide Oval (8.10pm)

Adelaide and Port Adelaide meet in a high-stakes Showdown at Adelaide Oval on Saturday, with the Crows entering as clear favourites thanks to their explosive form and superior midfield depth. Adelaide lead the AFL in scoring in 2025, averaging 104 points per game, and are fresh off a 60-point dismantling of Carlton, while Port are reeling from a 91-point loss to the Bulldogs and rank 17th in clearance and contested ball differential. With elite ball movement and a dangerous forward trio in Taylor Walker, Darcy Fogarty and Riley Thilthorpe, the Crows look set to expose Port’s midfield vulnerabilities. Expect Adelaide to control the tempo, while Port rely heavily on Zak Butters and Connor Rozee to keep them in the contest. Tip: Adelaide to cover the line

Sunday May 11

Richmond v West Coast Eagles, MCG (1.10pm)

Richmond and West Coast meet in a Round 9 clash at the MCG on Sunday, with the Tigers well placed to notch their third win of the season against a winless Eagles side. Richmond have shown glimpses of promise with wins over Carlton and Gold Coast, and although they were well beaten by Hawthorn last weekend, midfielders Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper remain consistent contributors. West Coast, meanwhile, are anchored to the bottom of the ladder at 0-8, struggling across the board and conceding over 112 points per game. With the Eagles missing key defender Jeremy McGovern and Richmond having won their last four against West Coast at the MCG, the Tigers are favourites to get the job done at home. Tip: Richmond at the head to head.

Geelong Cats v GWS Giants, GMHBA Stadium (3.20pm)

Geelong and GWS face off in a pivotal Round 9 clash at GMHBA Stadium on Sunday, with the Cats aiming to build momentum after a narrow win over Collingwood, while the Giants look to halt a three-game losing streak. Geelong sit 7th on the ladder and boast strong attacking efficiency, ranking 2nd for goals per inside 50, led by Jeremy Cameron and a rejuvenated Patrick Dangerfield. However, GWS have a surprising hold over the Cats in Geelong, having won their past four at the venue. The Giants dominate possession stats, with Tom Green and Lachie Whitfield racking up high disposal numbers, but have struggled converting that into scoreboard pressure. Tip: Take GWS with the points start given their strong record at the ground

North Melbourne v Brisbane Lions, Ninja Stadium (4.40pm)

Brisbane head into Sunday’s Round 9 clash at Ninja Stadium as overwhelming favourites against a struggling North Melbourne outfit that has lost six in a row and sits at 1-7 for the season. The Lions, now 7-1 and sitting atop the ladder, boast elite midfield depth led by Lachie Neale and the Ashcroft brothers, and should dominate a Kangaroos side that ranks near the bottom for both points conceded and inside 50s. Charlie Cameron looms as a major threat up forward, having kicked 10 goals in his last four against North, while Brisbane have won the past seven meetings, including the last three by an average of 88 points. Tip: Brisbane to cover the line.